Elon Musk is the richest man in the world, worth over $295 billion. Over 18 months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock market continues to surge. SaaS multiples are at all time highs. The Fed, initially hawkish on interest rates, is reassessing after the COVID-19 Omicron variant has emerged. Almost all top tier venture capital firms are funding cryptocurrency startups. Some venture capitalists are even suggesting that venture backed companies invest some of their treasury into Bitcoin.

My instinct tells me that this is the top. That the optimism around crypto is too good to be true. But as Charlie Munger says,

Never underestimate the man who overestimates himself

It's incredibly hard to predict the future, so I won't try. Just look at Bill Gates trying to explain the internet in 1995. Gates had written The Road Ahead that year, a book about the future, which barely mentioned the Internet. How many technologists had a more insider view than Gates in 1995?

So I'm starting off by documenting this year while it's still fresh in my mind. So much has happened this year and I find it difficult to look at what's happened outside the bubble of our immediate context. I imagine looking back at these events will have one of two effects in the future: (1) these were unrelated moments that consumed the public discourse, but were ultimately unimportant; or (2) these moments were an important signal of good or bad times to come and a new status quo.

Ray Dalio, founder of the iconic hedge fund Bridgewater, writes down the reasoning behind his trades when he does them, and later uses that as part of his learning (whether he ended up being right or wrong). I haven't quite made any large bets, but I hope to look back and learn from how I made decisions given the context I had.